REAL ESTATE
Where Housing Is Headed

 

A look at fundamental indicators in 28 major real-estate markets. (See related article)
   — Compiled by James R. Hagerty, 01/24/08

Overall Strength of Each Metro Area
  Strong: Good job-growth prospects and moderate housing inventory in relation to sales   Moderate: Less buoyant job growth and/or high inventories   Weak: High inventories and job growth prospects no better than average
Metro area   ↓ Overall Strength of Metro Area    Change in housing inventory*    Months supply**    Price change***    Employment outlook****    Loan payments overdue*****   
Atlanta  Moderate 13% 11 -.7% Strong 5.21%
Boston  Moderate -8.3% 5 -3.6% Weak 3.53%
Charlotte, N.C.  Moderate 19% 7.8 4.3% Strong 3.69%
Chicago  Weak 3.3% 10 -3.2% Weak 3.47%
Dallas  Strong 0% 5.9 -.1% Strong 4.53%
Denver  Moderate -3.8% 5.7 -1.8% Average 3.71%
Detroit  Weak 12% 19 -11.2% Very Weak 5.3%
Houston  Strong 12% 6 N/A Strong 4.60%
Jacksonville, Fla. net/media/info-houseIndicatorQ407-weak.jpg"/> Weak 11% 12 N/A Average 4.49%
Las Vegas  Weak 21% 18 -10.7% Average 6.38%
Los Angeles  Weak 33% N/A -8.8% Weak 4.06%
Miami-Ft. Laud.  Weak 20% 29 -12.4% Average 7.15%
Mpls-St. Paul  Moderate 17% 8 -5.5% Average 3.57%
Nashville  Moderate 26% 5.9 N/A Average 3.62%
New York  Moderate 6.2% N/A -4.1% Very Weak 3.71%
Orange County, Calif.  Weak 28% 9.2 N/A Weak 3.26%
Orlando  Moderate 24% 17.5 N/A Strong 5.44%
Philadelphia  Weak 3.8% 8.7 N/A Weak 3.24%
Phoenix  Weak 23% 12 -10.6% Weak 4.29%
Portland, Ore.  Moderate 36% 5.7 1.9% Average 2.33%
Raleigh-Durham, N.C.  Moderate 24% 5.6 N/A N/A N/A
Sacramento  Weak 26% 10 N/A Average 4.94%
San Diego  Weak 20% N/A -11.1% Weak 3.99%
San Francisco  Moderate 42% 6.6 -6.2% Average 2.91%
Seattle  Moderate 50% 4.9 3.3% Average 2.13%
St. Louis  Weak 17% 7.5 N/A Weak 3.63%
Tampa  Weak 13% 16 -11.8% Average 5.31%
Washington, D.C.  Moderate 26% 7.5 -7% Average 3.91%

* Change from a year ago in the number of single-family homes, condos, townhouses and co-ops offered in multiple-listing services at the end of December 2007.

** Number of months that homes listed at year end would last at the average 2007 sales rate. Listings normally decline for seasonal reasons in December and rebound in January.

*** Average price level in October compared with a year earlier based on S&P/Case-Shiller index.

**** Job growth projections by Moody's Economy.com for the two years ending Dec. 31, 2009. Characterization is in relation to the growth consistent with a stable national unemployment rate.

***** Percentage of mortgage loans 30 days or more delinquent in latest quarter, based on data from Equifax and Moody's Economy.com. U.S. average is 3.98%.

Sources for inventory: Otteau Valuation Group, ZipRealty, Smart Numbers, Prudential California Realty, MLS Property Information Network, MLS of Northern Illinois, Real Estate One, Esslinger-Wooten-Maxwell, Corcoran Group, Consolidated MLS, Prudential Fox & Roach, Arizona Regional MLS, Trendgraphix, Northwest MLS, RE/MAX Real Estate Services, Aliso Viejo, Calif. and local Realtor associations

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